Ukraine: One “Regime Change” Too Many?
Monday, 03 March 2014 – By Ray McGovern, Consortium News | News Analysis
Unidentified troops march as they block a military base in the village of Privolnoye in the Crimea region of Ukraine, March 2, 2014. Russia’s move to seize the Crimean Peninsula brought a warning from Ukraine against further incursions. Ukraine’s premier said on Sunday that the nation was on the “brink of disaster.” (Photo: Sergey Ponomarev / The New York Times)
Is “regime change” in Ukraine the bridge too far for the neoconservative “regime changers” of Official Washington and their sophomoric “responsibility-to-protect” (R2P) allies in the Obama administration? Have they dangerously over-reached by pushing the putsch that removed duly-elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has given an unmistakable “yes” to those questions – in deeds, not words. His message is clear: “Back off our near-frontier!”
Moscow announced on Saturday that Russia’s parliament has approved Putin’s request for permission to use Russia’s armed forces “on the territory of the Ukraine pending the normalization of the socio-political situation in that country.”
Putin described this move as necessary to protect ethnic Russians and military personnel stationed in Crimea in southern Ukraine, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet and other key military installations are located. But there is no indication that the Russian parliament has restricted the use of Russian armed forces to the Crimea. [Read more]
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Priya:
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Why not seek a resolution from UN to have elections in Ukraine
ASAP which almost certain Putin and Russia would welcome….
The solution is not military more economic/political.
Let the people of Ukraine decide in democratically free and fair
elections monitored by the UN…..it is not too late….
Why this was never implemented in Syria is because
the circumstances were different …Ashad received
Russia s endorsement by not agreeing with UN ….
Vetoing any actions to remove Ashad …vi Iraq Egypt Libya
military intervention ….now we see military intervention
ignoring any UN s involvement…wonder why.
Now that the horse has bolted the becomes more complex.
UN needs to be less impartial and more democratic to regain
the respect of its members ….or be deemed “past its sell by date”
not suited for purpose….in a word “useless”
Kamtan
Let them decide WHAT? The Crimeans are Russians so they will go with Mother Russia. Kiev has decided that Ukranian is the only official language, a very foolish thing to do. If that is the case, Eastern Ukraine will probably go with Russia too. Putin is no fool. He has to protect his interests. After the EU, he probably expects Ukraine to become part of NATO and be right in his backyard. Ukraine has always been the breadbasket of Russia so food prices are going to rise for Russia with Ukraine in the EU. He can’t appear to look like a weakling before his own people.
Of course most Ukrainians will back Russia (Putin) in a free and fair
elections …a win win situ for Putin and Russia.
Democratically endorsed…then no “outsiders”
can complain/argue. Putin is no fool !
He knows what he has to do and will do it…regardless and good
for him.
Russia is going to pay dearly in the end. Firstly, it cannot afford to prolong this costly military move for a long time. It does not have the lavish financial resources as the west. It has oil, its major foreign currency earner, and some steel but no other major industrial enterprise. Visitors to Moscow or Stalingrad would be surprise at how undeveloped Russia still is, and how wealthy Russians flee westward. But they have a large army.
Secondly, only the west, including the U.S. could provide the aid and other resources Ukraine needs. The western way of life and lavish lifestyle is a magnet to people in that region. Putin might have to blink in the end and find some middle ground with the west. He cannot offer Ukraine what the west could.
They are still in Georgia and surviving quite nicely, thank you.
War. Everywhere is war.
Putin is greedy, that is why he invaded Ukraine and he will lose more than he gains. He will end up like President Bush and Iraq. Too many lives were lost for nothing in that war including American soldiers and this was unnecessary.
Cliff congratulations you have nailed it….well done.
Hindsight teaches fools.
Salud brother
Cliff, Crimea is no Iraq. The Crimeans want Putin. Pick up a history book..
The world needs Putin regardless….he is doing a good job
…remove him and we end up with a “military” dictatorship.
Which is more a threat to world peace.?
Stalin was a dictator not unlike Castro who followed.
Stalin joined allies to defeat Hitler…Nazism.
Spoils of war being exposed as “secrets” become declassified
in time….the only war I support is the War on poverty and hunger.
A JUST WAR
Putin is a 21st century Stalinist…Russia needs strong leadership.
Well done valdamir you have “guts” and “style”
De martial arts black belt.
Much prefer a united Russia under Putin than a military dictatorship.
Lesser of two necessary evils….threat to world peace.!! Armagideon..
Sorry Rosaliene but “wars” are an economic evil we have to live
with…..some cannot live without….war on poverty about the
only war that is a “just” war.
We have learnt little from history as we keep repeating the same
mistakes over and over again….I share your “frustrations” but
I never despair remaining forever the optimist.
“Cold war” all over again.
Albert
Your assessment and comment above I must respond to….
it is economic/military with little understanding of Putin s
political dilemma. Put a rat in a corner and he will “retaliate”
…that’s what rats do….apply the same rule to humans and you
end up with same result.
Question
How to “destroy” the venomous creature “painted by west as Putin”..
Starve it (economics)
Kill it (military)
There are rats in Cities living to the sizes of foxes….New York London
even minus 40c Moscow…..remove PUTIN and he will be replaced
with another. Rats are controlled by “poisoning” but even that never
makes them extinct…..
I remain optimistic that commonsense will prevail and a compromise
reached….hopefully via UN. WW3 will never happen….at least not
in my lifetime…loose loose situation for all.
Yours truly
Swiss kamtan ….neither for or against WAR
Abert sorry I spelt your name incorrectly….but my tablet keeps prompting incorrect
letters….yes its a “Google” tablet…ha ha ! American manufactured in China….
sorry…
Salud
American manufactured in China. Now the real winner of all this hit me…..its China. The Russian currency was depreciated by a significant percent (don’t recall the real figure). China import about 40 percent of Russian oil. Notice how the Chinese are quiet while the US and Europe fight with Russia. Chinese global relationship remains intact and they will pay less for Russian oil. Germany may also benefit but the German Chancellor, I suspect, don’t think much of Putin. He was in the KGB when Russia did some nasty things to them, post WWII
Ha ha…Merkel is no fool either. Allow the two “testorone driven males”
to battle on…as long as cheaper oil keeps flowing….
China and Germany “Asian and Europeans” both benefiting from
the cheaper oil….Let’s see how “OPEC” reacts to these developments.
Hopefully cheaper oil for everyone….
We shall see….
We finished saving Guyana?I missed the conclusion.Sorry
Guyana will be saved when there Is a big enough Amerindian and Brazilian population. Coming relatively soon.
Go one further ….they are already there my friend….all that is needed
now is the “infrastructure” road rail river link to GT….from
East west and south…language the only “temporary” barrier.
Maybe thats what Guyana needs….only time will tell.
Ukraine and the ‘Little Cold War’
Geopolitical Weekly Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Read more: Ukraine and the ‘Little Cold War’ | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukraine-and-little-cold-war
Editor’s Note: In place of George Friedman’s regular Geopolitical Weekly, this column is derived from two chapters of Friedman’s 2009 book, The Next 100 Years. We are running this abstract of the chapters that focused on Eastern Europe and Russia because the forecast — written in 2008 — is prescient in its anticipation of events unfolding today in Russia, Ukraine and Crimea.
By George Friedman
We must consider the future of Eurasia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Since 1991, the region has fragmented and decayed. The successor state to the Soviet Union, Russia, is emerging from this period with renewed self-confidence. Yet Russia is also in an untenable geopolitical position. Unless Russia exerts itself to create a sphere of influence, the Russian Federation could itself fragment.
Read more: Ukraine and the ‘Little Cold War’ | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukraine-and-little-cold-war
Its a good article consistent with what some other knowledgeable people on eastern affairs have said. I visited Russia about 3-4 years ago and was disappointed. They have a long interested history in which the poorer class suffered tremendously. All they have now really is oil and a large military. No other sound manufacturing base. Oil has a two edge sword: they are at the mercy of the buyers if, as likely, other nations step in to sell Europe. They cant even make a proper car. Often you see people on the road working on their broken down “Opel” The streets are congested, it takes a hell of a long time to travel a few blocks. The major means of travel is the underground railroad. Here there is a lot of security for fear of sabotage by terrorists. Knock that out and the area would come to a crawl. The food market in Stalingrad is worst than you see in some third world countries. Its like big market in Georgetown in the old days. Major foreign companies, like Toyota, only have a toenail in Russia, and every where you go people try to extract the American dollar by begging or wanting tips. If Putin is trying to resurrect Russia to its old glory days he needs a miracle.
An honest and first had report of Russia today.
However if Putin opens his doors to “outsiders”
Euro Asia even Americas am sure what you experienced
3/4 years ago can all change quite dramatically.
When politricks takes priority over economics
everyone looses….Germany and Japan may have lost
the battles but they have won the war….both countries
were “destroyed” after WW2 today they have not only
“Rebuilt” there cities . they enjoy a very high standard of living…
with a very robust middle class.
..WW2 was more a “political” “military” war
WW3 is more an economic war.
Hopefully a war on corruption and poverty.
Russia will have to overcome these obstacles if it is to move
forward…Putin’s dilemma.!!!
My spin in total optimism.
As for Guyana where corruption is endemic in its society
that battle will take much longer.
Sometimes I despair.
Kamtan
A pretty concise analysis “updated”…
Certainly helps in understanding Putin’s dilemma.
Devil you do devil you don’t.
Thanks to guyaneseonline for these insightful contributions
of a bit of Russian history…..it gives one a better understanding
of the issues present.
Salud
Some of the most beautiful moscowvites were in southern Spain…
when I first moved there on retirement…a decade ago.
Putin’s ambassadors I joked….today I see them everywhere in Europe
in my travels….even here in towns and cities in UK.
Life in Russia was hell for them …Russian working class
consume more vodka and iltreat their wives ….not different to the
working classes in UK decade or so ago….
Today new laws are having a dramatic change on attitudes.
The climate can change “politically” overnight but “economically”
it takes a little longer….stability breathes growth.
My thesis…instability stagnates/destroys.
Kamtan
I will give you some great information on why Cameron is against any sanction on Russia, and like they say in the media, you read it here first. Great Britain has open the doors for Russian money, dirty or clean, and has some 2,000 wealthy Russians living there. They spend about 100 million pounds yearly, bought part ownership in a number of British interest: railroad, football club and the like. They buy fancy cars,they send their children to the best British private schools. Even the British petroleum gets about 6 percent of its profits from Russian sources. Britain has a system where gangsters or criminals from Russia could invest their money (British Virgin Island etc) for clean money in Britain. Could Cameron close the door on this kind of money because Russia took a piece of land far from England. A prostitute sell her body for money, Cameron only sell England.
Abert
“money talks” its the world in which we live..!!
Cameron is a politician first….everything else after.
Are you suggesting he asks all the Millionaires
living in UK to leave tomorrow….4500 of richest on the
planet with 30m or more now live here….or have HRH QE2
to leave as she is one of the richest in UK.
Get real my friend would you…..
However if any of those who live here were
caught evading/avoiding paying Taxes and Cameron
was aware and did not prosecute them then he will
have to answer for his actions….am sure the British
media would not let him off the hook….
We do have a free and may add hungry press here in UK
that sometimes are OTT (over the top)…sensationalisation !
And I certainly won’t pay for Cameron’s body…ha ha
I really wanted to stay away from this string, but to stir things up, I am compelled to introduce the concept of the ‘Monroe Doctrine’ – Vladimir Putin is invoking this concept in his backyard: Why is it different when they do it??
Clyde, I have also refrained from sharing my two cents. Like you, I’ve wondered why it’s different when the Russians behave as they do. Guyana is still suffering from events following the suspension of its constitution in 1953 before it had gained independence. America could not tolerate another communist country in its backyard.
Most people like Putin and as a Stalinist he shows strength and
determination….on if you can trust him …that begs to question.
He is a politician.!
However one thing is certain.. he wants one united Russia.
Almost a nationalist…
The Chinese and Soviets have always supported/helped each other
In the past…but the world has changed …moved on…will that
change their “cosy” relationship….only time will tell..
With money even brothers kill each other…
Why did Kane kill Abel.!!
…I try not to follow the media but sometimes its unavoidable….
they offer messages but are not the messenger.
No more on the subject now.
RIP
Clyde
You made me Google “Monroe Doctrine” and read it all over again.
Hey that was 1823 …its now 2014…sorry but I try not to go back
too far in my readings….
However I do feel very strongly that AMERICA should be more careful
on giving advice or taking sides in matters non american….
or they end up with egg in their face.
China has been silent , even Europe , and its only UK s Cameron
that is supportive of involvement in Putin’s internal matters.
Both Cameron and Obama are a bit naive or ill advised.
Putin’s popularity will only improve now.
Rosaliene
Today we know how Cheddi was cheated out of power
in the “conspiracy” of Mac Million and Kennedy…
only to be replaced by an educated bully and a thug.
One should never trust politicians….or politricks.
Fools in their paradise of power…
The pen is mightier than the sword….write on….
Rosaliene aptly described how the Monroe Doctrine was applied in British Guiana during the 1950’s and 1960’s. The Embargo of Cuba is another example.
There is one crucial point missing. Why does America trade fully with socialist China (if one could call it socialist) or even Russia but not with Cuba? Why does America go after terrorists but give residency to the terrorist who placed a bomb and killed those young Guyanese in that Havana bound plane. I could go on and on but the point is countries are not people. They all have double standards, in that they do what is perceived to be in their countries interest. Killing people is immoral yet countries send their agents to kill agents in foreign countries they think poses a threat to them. America consider Russia a threat. What you do to those who threaten you? Think of Israel and Iran.
A bit of history answers your question my friend…
Stalin assisted Chinese post WW2 in Korea with
MIG Fighters using RR rolls Royce engines copied
from one Churchill gave to Stalin as a reward for
Stalin s support against Hitler.
Chinese and soviets “special relationship” is not
much different to the “special relationship” USA UK
Obama Cameron….economically politically but not
religiously….one should never forsake ones friends
especially in war.
Chinese silence is deafening….let Putin and Merkel do the talking
with Obama and Cameron sidelined for their naivety ill advised diplomacy.
The last thing China wishes for is a united Europe with Russia
included….what will they do with all those USD they have stockpiled
Better topay for oil in USD than in EUROS.
WARS are fought more for economic than political reasons.
Remain focused on “reasons” rather than “results” and the only just war
will be one on corruption and poverty.
“Remain focused on “reasons” rather than “results” and the only just war
will be one on corruption and poverty.”
I share your sentiments, Kamtan.
I just recalled the odious event about 40-years ago, September 11, at that – the murder of Salvador Allende. I recalled telling a friend in 2001, the old folks always say, “Wha’ miss ya don’t pass ya?” This is another event that had a lot to do with the Monroe Doctrine: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/09/11/pers-s11.html
Again on the Monroe doctrine………what about the invasion of Grenada and removal of Bishop by cowboy Regan. The bold face lie was that Soviet Russia was secretly building an airstrip in Grenada to accommodate heavy bombers. The comical part was that there were American students studying the U.S. medical school in that country who jogged regularly on the unfinished airstrip. I think however that political idea (the Monroe doctrine) has become exhausted. Too many worrisome socialist wannaby countries in the region, including Peru, and Venezuela. They have exhausted American resources.
It wasn’t Reagan who removed Bishop. Austin killed him first.
Clyde
I consider myself lucky to have had a girlfriend from Chile in the 80s
in London….she was a refugee after Allende was replaced by the military dictator Pinoche…some of her stories she took to her grave….
Thanks for the reminder of how “uninformed” most of the public are
on matters that have changed our world forever….will we ever learn
by not repeating mistakes of past….doubt it !
God Bless Putin!
Israel and Ukraine
by URI AVNERY
BINYAMIN NETANYAHU is very good at making speeches, especially to Jews, neocons and such, who jump up and applaud wildly at everything he says, including that tomorrow the sun will rise in the west.
The question is: is he good at anything else?
HIS FATHER, an ultra-ultra-Rightist, once said about him that he is quite unfit to be prime minister, but that he could be a good foreign minister. What he meant was that Binyamin does not have the depth of understanding needed to guide the nation, but that he is good at selling any policy decided upon by a real leader. Read more at:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/07/israel-and-ukraine/print
Interesting prognosis…with historical reference.
The good that Putin does will live after him
The bad buried with his bones
A 21st century Caesar in the making. Et tu Brutae !
We shall see….
I would like to extend my thanks to Cyril Bryan for making this ‘Conversation Tree’ available to us and, I further commend the participants on this string for your stimuli, questions, insightful comments and input on the subject matter in caption; your opinions and ‘reasons’ for what is going on in the Ukraine is fabulous and informative. I believe, if one reads from top to bottom on this string, every one of us should have a better understanding of this conflict than if we relied on a single source. I believe, collectively, we are better informed on this subject than the person in the street who is relying on a single source for their updates.
As they say, the public is made up of the uninformed; the intentionally misinformed; and the naïve. We, on this blog, on this subject are ahead of the public, I believe.
Let’s cut to the chase: I was listening to Prof. Nina Khrushcheva, grand-daughter of Nikita Khrushchev, the man who handed Crimea over to Ukraine for free. Vladimir Putin is taking Crimea back under the control of Russia. Crimea is not going back to Ukraine. Putin does not want a war, but he is not backing down. He believes he has the support of about 60-percent of Crimea, so the only option the West has is to negotiate how Crimea will stay Russian – that’s my take. Read on: http://english.pravda.ru/history/19-02-2009/107129-ussr_crimea_ukraine-0/
Thanks for sharing that link, Clyde. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is much more complex than we-the-general-public in the West realize. We have a long history of demonizing communists.
I agree with you, this exchange has been valuable in better understanding this conflict.
I heard what must have been the same interview by the grand daughter of Nikita Khrushchev on MSNBC. I agree with her. The taking of Crimea by Putin is a done deal. Russia did the same thing with Georgia a few years back and still holds the section it took by force. Condi Rice, under George Bush, threatened to extend the installation of the nuclear defensive shield to cover Poland. Something the Russians had vehemently protested before. If Putin and Russia escape without paying a` price for this incursion some other bordering country would be next.
Funny how the interest in Russia is in the headlines….
In my opinion Gorbechov was one of the best presidents of Russia.
Replaced by Boris Yeltsin a vodkaholic….he moved Russia towards
democracy ending the “cold war”…friend of Reagan movie star actor
cum president of USA….he did win the Nobel prize for peace…
now we are told Putin wishes to “re-incarnate” cold war….
Recommendation
Google presidents of Russia ..from Stalin to Putin before deciding
on who you feel Putin’s mentor is/should be.
Kamtan
“………..who you feel Putin’s mentor is/should be.” This would be difficult considering the times each governed. Before visiting Russia I took an online course on the history of Russia: “Peter the Great to Gorbachev” by Professor Mark Steinberg of the University of Illinois. Russia has a long, complex history full of changes. I end more confused in the end than when I started. I am sure you know much about the turning point of WW2 when Hitler attempted to invade Russia and his armies were defeated at Stalingrad with Stalin as head of the Russian military. Now that access has been given to Russian war documents by western writers, Stalin is shown to be much less than the military hero we taught he was. That aspect of military history is really different and more complex than originally told.
“History” written by victors
“Real history” should be written by the “vanquished”..loosers.
Will Putin and Russia re-possess Eastern euroland by military
occupation. Doubt it…..my response to the Georgia issue.
Putin is no fool ..he enjoys “confrontation” and is a “pragmatist”
He would be as hated as Hitler was until his suicidal end.
Stalin was a traitor and so was Hitler….neither could be trusted.
(Military mentality) power mad….
Politicians not far behind.
Then comes the greeedy and corrupt bankers corporate ….
Hence my quotation of William S Julius Caesar.
in reference to Putin.
Et tu Brutae….Caesar was warned of “ides of march”
Not wishing to stray from subject …..what we are experiencing
is history repeating itself….history of a fools paradise.
Will Putin and Russia re-conquer the world !
Will the powers that be allow it.
WW3 of Armagdeon…doubt it.!
Pragmatically optimist…let WW3 be one on corruption and poverty
My spin
Kamtan…Hitlers mistake fighting war on two fronts East West.
Thanks to everyone for making this an interesting discussion .. at a high level.
Here is a video documentary on Crimea and the upcoming referendum on March 16, that may be of interest …
https://guyaneseonline.wordpress.com/2014/03/09/great-expectations-crimean-referendum-rt-documentary/
Abert
Disagree….don’t think Putin or Russia has any intention of retaking any
territory ceded to euro land democratically after Goberchov initiative.
End “cold war” …neither does he wish to conquer the world.
Hitler one of his many mentors. Stalin betrayed Hitler and visa versa.
Both can be described as “fanatics” in today’s political climate.
Hindsight teaches fools.
So does history …but should we repeat the mistakes of history and
remains fools in our paradise of life.!!no siree…certainly not.
Kamtan
Not sure I know what you disagree with. Enjoyed the discussion with you and the Guyanese folks but have to move on from this topic. Listened to experts on Russia (GPS…. CNN) and even they disagree. Too much we don’t know.
——————————————————————————————————
Would love to be engage on a discussion of online trading on U.S. stock market which could help my countrymen improve ways of making money in America. One problem is that its a subject with a necessary learning curve and too much of the basics to explain. I hope Cyril or someone could get hold of an article to start a thread, if there is an appetite for this topic, and we could go from there.
There is absolutely no evidence that Hitler is one of Putin’s mentors The question in itself is irrelevant. Putin is acting to get leverage for eventual discussions with Ukraine and the expanding West.