USA POLITICS: Most decisive defeat of an incumbent US president since 1932 – by André Brändli

Letter to the Editor-In-Chief of Guyanese Online

by André W. Brändli

There have been recently lots of discussions and comments in the mass media and in news outlets suggesting that the results of the 2020 US Presidential Elections were close. Now as most states have reported their results (>98% of the votes counted), an analysis with a historical perspective is possible.         

The defeat of an incumbent president is a rare event in American history. Since the election of George Washington in 1788, a total of 58 presidential elections were held and 45 presidents served the nation. A failure to win a majority in the Electoral College has sealed the fate of only eleven incumbent presidents. Over the last hundred years, these were Herbert Hoover (1932), Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980), George H.W. Bush (1992), and most recently Donald Trump (2020). The latter was defeated by 306 to 232 electoral votes.

Although the Electoral College elects the US president, a look at the share of the popular vote is also very informative. Currently, Joe Biden has received 51.1% of the votes cast and he outperformed the incumbent by more than 6.2 million votes. This number is likely to increase even more in favor of Joe Biden given that Democratic stronghold New York has to date only counted 84% of the votes cast.

Since Martin Van Buren was voted out of office in 1840, only Franklin D. Roosevelt, with 57.4% of the popular vote, did better than Joe Biden in defeating a sitting president. Interestingly, FDR’s victory over Herbert Hoover was also attributed to the incompetence and failures of the incumbent to cope with a severe economic crisis.

André W. Brändli is a Professor of Molecular Pathophysiology at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich. He lives in Munich, Germany, and Zollikon, Switzerland.

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Comments

  • kamtanblog  On 11/30/2020 at 1:44 am

    Thanks to professorie Brandli for his informed analysis article/comment on USA election results. Confirms the “America first” dream
    come true. Will USA be great again ?
    My jury out !
    Reminder historically
    USA lands were “stolen” from its First Nations
    inhabitants then capitalised/cannibalised by
    it’s economic migrants post WW1/2.
    Our planet belongs to no one
    It belongs to everyone
    Best cared/shared

    Do we need an alien invasion to unite use ?
    Maybe yes !
    WW3

    My two cents

    Kamtan uk-ex-EU

  • David Dee  On 11/30/2020 at 2:48 am

    Mr. Brändli, with the utmost humility, you really ought to stick close to Molecular Pathophysiology thematically when you write an ‘opinion’ to be published, unless, of course, you are either willing to invest the requisite investigative time or have little shame of being embarrassed.
    You seem unaware that only Electors from the various States in the USA, actually determine who will serve as the President for the next 4 years (in this case from 2021-2025). That fact, on which your entire comment should be predicated, is sadly unknown to you. Such a very rudimentary fact you made no effort to ascertain, prior to putting your name to an opinion you succeeded to have published. I would say that you are very unfortunate that the Editor is unreservedly willing to publish most mainstream Opinion Pieces regarding perhaps the most pivotal US Elections in History; an Election that will determine whether it remains a Constitutional Republic or devolves into an ‘Open-Borders-George-Soros’ wasteland of anarchic socialism as it hurtles off the cliff into the jaws of One World Elitist Governance. Could it be that you relish the swift ascendancy of China as the de facto Superpower? As a person who always strives to see the best intentions in others, I will resist entertaining the prospect that the motivation for your Opinion Piece was not rooted in servitude to the Globalist destruction of their sole remaining obstacle to their Sinister Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030.
    Along with millions of awakened Souls, liberated from mass media manipulation and programming, I am profoundly thankful that this evil Cabal has been entrapped by a non-politician with the initials DJT and his band of Patriots into the hugest Fraud and Sedition in US history to steal a Republic. You should be proud that your Country of Germany played a part in the trap: Frankfurt was home to the CIA Data farm that was hosting the seminal evidence of the aforementioned Fraud. Tune back into reality on January 21st, 2021 as DJT is re-elected in the hugest Landslide Presidential US Victory the Entire World’s inhabitants will come to appreciate as the Triumph of the End Of The Cabal.

    • kamtanblog  On 11/30/2020 at 4:00 am

      In my opinion
      Mathematically 50.1% is greater than 49.9%
      If the CIC of USA wins with 50.1% it is still a
      Win…all be it with the smallest of margins.
      Please correct me if am wrong but didn’t Biden
      win with over 6m more votes than DTJ.?
      On 21january he will become the new CIC.
      2021 ? Only time will tell if he can make USA
      great again !
      Not long to go

      Viva USA !
      Viva Americans !

      Kamtan

      • brandli62  On 11/30/2020 at 6:01 am

        Correct, Kamtan! Biden is current leading the popular vote with 51.1% over Trump with 47.1%. He won nation-wide 6.2 million votes more than Trump. This was hardly a close election and a clear verdict of the American people for change in the White House.

  • wally n  On 11/30/2020 at 11:27 am

    With all the information trickling out concerning, how computer systems can be easily programmed to any one candidate, maybe the people should pay a little more attention to the results. The graphs spiking after the balloting had “ceased”should be cause for alarm. So maybe let it all play out, Gore had much more time, hopefully biden has too.
    Again, I agree with David

  • Clyde Duncan  On 11/30/2020 at 1:51 pm

    David Dee [seconded by Wally n] wrote: YOU SEEM UNAWARE THAT ONLY ELECTORS FROM THE VARIOUS STATES IN THE USA, ACTUALLY DETERMINE WHO WILL SERVE AS THE PRESIDENT FOR THE NEXT 4 YEARS

    Prof André W. Brändli wrote: A failure to win a majority in the Electoral College has sealed the fate of only eleven incumbent presidents.

    So, what did the professor write? — Now, who is “unaware”?

    Somehow, it appears as though David and Wally failed English comprehension.

  • Clyde Duncan  On 12/01/2020 at 12:26 am

    Trump Losing Twitter Followers – As Biden Gains Them

    President has lost 133,902 followers since 17 November as president-elect has gained 1,156,610

    Martin Pengelly | The Guardian UK

    Donald Trump has been losing Twitter followers since he lost the presidential election to Joe Biden – while the Democratic president-elect has been adding them.

    According to Factbase, a website dedicated to tracking Trump’s public utterances, the president has lost 133,902 followers since 17 November while the president-elect has gained 1,156,610.

    In a Sunday tweet, the CNN host and media reporter Brian Stelter said that while Twitter followers were “surely not the most important metric in the world”, it was “still worth noting: for the first time since 2015, Trump is consistently losing followers”.

    Factbase, he pointed out, had “measured small declines for 11 days in a row”.

  • Clyde Duncan  On 12/01/2020 at 12:43 am

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