GUYANA: COVID-19 death rate above one per day – and growing exponentially

Hundreds of young persons were tested positive and have since recovered from COVID-19.
It is matter-of-factly more likely to know someone who has recovered from COVID-19 with little hassle, than to know someone who has endured pain and suffering, or even worse, died after being infected by this virus. And it is easier for the young and strong to go about their lives knowing that many of them will be alright.

But COVID-19 is creeping up on Guyana, and the reality is that the country’s eagerness to return to ‘normalcy’ is manifesting itself in real consequences in the lives of the vulnerable.     

Guyana is well into September and the death rate for the month has surpassed one death per day.

When the rate of death is compared to past months, it becomes evident that the death rate is on the increase, and COVID-19 will not let up any time soon.

A chart prepared by Kaieteur News shows the number of deaths recorded as of the 22nd day of every month after March. The chart demonstrates the increasing death rate; the steeper the line gets, the higher the rate goes. From March to June, deaths remained relatively low. However, from then onward is where the action started. Seven deaths were registered between June 22 and July 22. Twelve were registered from July 22 to August 22. From August 22 to yesterday, the Ministry of Health registered 36 more deaths.

When this growth is extrapolated, it shows that Guyana is likely to register 54 deaths in the next 30 days up to October 22, almost two deaths per day.

If that is startling, observe the projection from October to November: 94 deaths, totaling 215 since the pandemic came to Guyana.
Finally, Kaieteur News projects that in the month beginning November 22 to days before Christmas, Guyana’s COVID-19 death toll is likely to meet 385.

Guyana has detected many more COVID-19 cases, and that is owed to a steep increase in testing when the new administration took office on August 2.

Before then, controversy over election rigging and the credibility of the elections had dominated the country’s attention, and testing was generally only being done on the symptomatic.

Between June 22 and July 22, the Ministry had registered 3,919 tests .

By the time the new government took over, it ramped up testing and by the following month, by August 22, 6,760 tests had been done. Testing done in the last month, leading up to yesterday shows a figure almost double from the previous month: 12,454 tests.

With this ramp up in testing came more startling results. In late August, this newspaper reported that every one in four tests came back positive.

It has gotten even worse, with every two in seven tests coming back positive for September so far. That frequency in detection is expected to increase as well.

Industry experts studying the impact of this pandemic all over the world predict that it could last well into the latter half of 2021, with the most devastating effects on poor families.

These numbers may be difficult to grapple with, but this is the reality that threatens Guyana if the status quo is maintained.

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Comments

  • brandli62  On September 23, 2020 at 8:48 am

    With Guyana entering exponential growth of new covid-19 infections, there is not hope of returning to normality any time soon. This is bad for the Guyanese economy and for all who were planing on visiting relatives for Xmas.

  • Linda  On September 23, 2020 at 8:47 pm

    It will be a very lean Christmas in Guyana this year that’s for sure. Shops full of old inventory that cannot be sold because of Covid-19 and the fact that the people have no money . The Business people will bear the brunt of this downturn in the economy. Many will lose thousands of dollars and this virus does not appear to have an expiry date.

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