US Politics: He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What’s His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion video

He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What’s His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion

Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not.

The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper.         

In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.

In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out. So what do the keys predict for 2020? To learn that, you’ll have to watch the video.

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Comments

  • kamtanblog  On September 8, 2020 at 3:35 am

    Absolutely disagree !
    Idiot-in-chief will be elected for second term.
    May even re-write constitution by declaring
    himself “Godzilla” !
    Power corrupts
    Ultimate power corrupts ultimately !

    Que sera sera
    QED

    Kamtan UK-ex-EU

  • brandli62  On September 8, 2020 at 8:45 am

    I hope Allan Lichtman is correct with his prediction. US democracy will not be able to withstand four more years of Trump in the White House. The US has never been more isolated and weak on the world stage. POTUS and his cronies have never understood that they can only face China with the allies in Europe and the Far East.

  • Chris Prashad  On September 8, 2020 at 5:18 pm

    Trump is not solely responsible for what the deep state psychopaths have done to the country with their covid bulshit. Bearing that in mind I am predicting a second and prosperous term for the present administration.

    • guyaneseonline  On September 8, 2020 at 10:32 pm

      Hi Chris..
      Glad to see that you have commented.
      I have not heard from you for sometime now.
      I see you are still in focus re the “deep state” politricks.

      Keep safe. Interesting times ahead!

  • brandli62  On September 8, 2020 at 5:23 pm

    Chris, I hope you are not living in the US. You might be deported if Trump wins again and Stephen Miller gets his way. Remember, you are from a sh… hole country.

    • Brother Man  On September 8, 2020 at 6:54 pm

      This man is obviously living in a cave. Trump is an avowed racist and criminally divisive who nurtures visceral disdain for black and brown people. He scornfully refers to countries ruled by blacks as s-hole countries. He prefers people from Norway to immigrate to America.

      He refused to rent his NY apartments to blacks in the ‘70s. Would you vote for someone who hates you for no reason other than the colour of your skin? He defines the Charlottesville racist face-off in 2017 as “very fine people on both sides”.

      He allegedly calls fallen American soldiers “suckers” and “losers “. To the man who wants this racist windbag to win in November, pull your damn head out of the sand. It will be hell if he’s re-elected.

      I am utterly shocked to hear a black or brown person openly support such a sack of dung, for real!

      Brother Man

    • Chris Prashad  On September 10, 2020 at 1:29 pm

      Your asinine comment speaks well of your lity. Keep it up. I can live anywhere I want.

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