US Politics: He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What’s His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion video

He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What’s His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion

Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not.

The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper.         

In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.

In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out. So what do the keys predict for 2020? To learn that, you’ll have to watch the video.

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Comments

  • kamtanblog  On 09/08/2020 at 3:35 am

    Absolutely disagree !
    Idiot-in-chief will be elected for second term.
    May even re-write constitution by declaring
    himself “Godzilla” !
    Power corrupts
    Ultimate power corrupts ultimately !

    Que sera sera
    QED

    Kamtan UK-ex-EU

  • brandli62  On 09/08/2020 at 8:45 am

    I hope Allan Lichtman is correct with his prediction. US democracy will not be able to withstand four more years of Trump in the White House. The US has never been more isolated and weak on the world stage. POTUS and his cronies have never understood that they can only face China with the allies in Europe and the Far East.

  • Chris Prashad  On 09/08/2020 at 5:18 pm

    Trump is not solely responsible for what the deep state psychopaths have done to the country with their covid bulshit. Bearing that in mind I am predicting a second and prosperous term for the present administration.

    • guyaneseonline  On 09/08/2020 at 10:32 pm

      Hi Chris..
      Glad to see that you have commented.
      I have not heard from you for sometime now.
      I see you are still in focus re the “deep state” politricks.

      Keep safe. Interesting times ahead!

  • brandli62  On 09/08/2020 at 5:23 pm

    Chris, I hope you are not living in the US. You might be deported if Trump wins again and Stephen Miller gets his way. Remember, you are from a sh… hole country.

    • Brother Man  On 09/08/2020 at 6:54 pm

      This man is obviously living in a cave. Trump is an avowed racist and criminally divisive who nurtures visceral disdain for black and brown people. He scornfully refers to countries ruled by blacks as s-hole countries. He prefers people from Norway to immigrate to America.

      He refused to rent his NY apartments to blacks in the ‘70s. Would you vote for someone who hates you for no reason other than the colour of your skin? He defines the Charlottesville racist face-off in 2017 as “very fine people on both sides”.

      He allegedly calls fallen American soldiers “suckers” and “losers “. To the man who wants this racist windbag to win in November, pull your damn head out of the sand. It will be hell if he’s re-elected.

      I am utterly shocked to hear a black or brown person openly support such a sack of dung, for real!

      Brother Man

    • Chris Prashad  On 09/10/2020 at 1:29 pm

      Your asinine comment speaks well of your lity. Keep it up. I can live anywhere I want.

  • Jo  On 09/26/2020 at 5:21 pm

    I think that Chris feels empowered by his “brown” skin tones..(tho’ he could be a black skin-toned Indian..I don’t know him)..to feel safely aligned with white Caucasians. After all, “Indians are Caucasian, aren’t they?”.though not all of them. However, it’s the racial pecking order that allows for his views and he feels aligned with those at the top. He’s free to wallow in his assumed safety as a Trump supporter…lonesome though it might be for those who aren’t white. He’s small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.

    • Chris Prashad  On 09/26/2020 at 6:03 pm

      Another comment coming from someone with an asinine brain that cannot comprehend what is staring this idiot in the face. A jackass wearing blinders cannot see through the illusions and face reality. In just 40 days from now the dark demonic clouds will vanish into oblivion, revealing the blinding cosmic light that will send the rats scampering into their dark abode with their tails tucked between their legs shivering in fear. Have a nice day clown.!!!

      • guyaneseonline  On 09/28/2020 at 9:40 am

        Chris:

        I have known you online for some years.
        I welcomed you back, but now I now notice that things seem to be getting very negative and personal in relation to your comments.
        You have your beliefs regarding race religion and politics, like everyone else.
        HOWEVER
        I have said many times that I will not tolerate personal, racial and religious attacks on this blog.
        Sometimes they slip by – when they are not held for moderation – and I may not be aware that they occurred.
        Please tone down the stuff you are posting — make your points without the added personal vitriol.

        Thank you for your co-operation in this important matter.

        Cyril Bryan

  • kamtanblog  On 09/26/2020 at 6:55 pm

    Gentlemen
    Insults because you “disagree” is certainly
    Un-gentlemanly conduct. One can agree to disagree without the “abuse” !
    Verbal abuse is somehow more acceptable
    than the written ones…which are usually read
    by many with different political affiliations.
    GOL is certainly not the forum for such
    exchanges.
    Let’s just agree to disagree with reason why
    if we have one. The written word is a lot
    more powerful than the spoken one…the
    sound bites dictates the disagreement !
    Shouting verbal abuse certainly not
    acceptable …the written more so.

    We all support “freedom” of expression and sharing of opinions but let’s leave the abuse
    to verbal diarrhoea!

    Thanks 🙏

    Kamtan

    • Brother Man  On 09/27/2020 at 7:57 am

      Morons and half-wits support the disgraceful demagogue in the White House, a bunker coward who denigrates fallen soldiers, who is glad he doesn’t have to shake the hands of his disgusting supporters.

      These disgusting people often resort to name-calling to make their point, just like misfit in Washington. They have difficulty sticking to the subject matter.

      In just 37 days Trump will be booted from office. Within a year of his ouster, he will be asked to produce his tax returns and answer to sexual assault charges in addition to his violation of several federal laws including the Hatch Act.

      He can run but he can’t hide. The big rat and his buddies will be running for cover.
      Maybe some of them will end up in Guyana.

      Joe Biden is the next president of the United States of America and Kamala Harris will follow him as # 47.

      Brother Man

    • brandli62  On 09/28/2020 at 3:50 am

      Kamtan, your call for civility and respect has my full support! It is very much needed. Hatred, racism, antisemitism, and disrespect expressed on this blog falls back on the person expressing such views and disqualifies them of a rightful place on the table of discussion.

      • kamtanblog  On 09/28/2020 at 5:16 am

        Partly agree…
        But even those who use abusive language
        should be allowed freedom of opinion…my objection is to the “language” and personal attack expressed in written words.
        It shows a degree of shallow thinking.

        Old saying stands
        Put brain into gear before mouth into action.

        Guess it’s undereducation or overeducation
        Both extremes !

        Thanks for your input.

        Kamtan

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