Caribbean: The View from Europe: A cold wind starts to blow – By David Jessop

The View from Europe: A cold wind starts to blow

David Jessop

By David Jessop

New winds are blowing through the Caribbean. Some may welcome what they bring; others may not.

Four events in the last month illustrate how the region is being captured, probably irretrievably, by a new if so far ill-defined Cold War that involves the US, China, Russia and Europe which for strategic reasons are seeking geopolitical and geo-economic influence in the region.

The most high-profile demonstration of this came in Washington’s decision to invite just five Caribbean leaders to a meeting with President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida March 22. A second illustration was a pre-arranged visit to the Dominican Republic just one day later by the Chinese Vice Premier, Hu Chunhua. The third relates to Venezuela and a low-key exchange organised with Canadian support between a delegation of CARICOM foreign ministers and Juan Guaidó, the country’s self-declared President. Moreover, the fourth was a Royal visit to Cuba which indirectly underlined the growing transatlantic rift between Europe and the US.   

Each has implications for the political and economic integrity of the Caribbean; each suggests that the region is now caught in a multipolar power struggle in which a small number of nations seek to create spheres of influence around their not easy to reconcile world views and values.

Although there are various versions of what took place at the meeting with President Trump in Florida; and despite a White House briefing before the event suggesting that the discussion would centre on Venezuela and China’s role in the region, in reality, such issues were not the overriding purpose of the encounter.

Apart from the fact that such issues had previously been discussed bilaterally by others, the principal purpose, as the Caribbean leaders present and Trump indicated just before the meeting began, was how the US might respond now and in the future for their support.

Read the press releases and statements made by Caribbean leaders after the event – the White House said almost nothing – and it becomes clear that Jamaica, Haiti, The Bahamas, the Dominican Republic and St Lucia while stressing the need for support for the whole region after years of neglect, now stand to benefit the most from Washington’s transactional approach. This was underlined by the participants being able to make requests on issues of bilateral concern.

None of this should be a surprise as it is almost a mirror image of the line of attack Washington is adopting toward Africa, albeit with the unique twist that in the Western Hemisphere the Monroe doctrine applies.

The underlying message being delivered formally and informally is that in future the Trump administration will respond to the Caribbean in a manner that discriminates in favour of those nations seen as being supportive. In doing so regional dialogue and multilateralism will largely be dispensed with, and Washington will enhance bilaterally its investment, energy, security and other hemispheric strategies with those that are like-minded.

Just as significant was the visit to the Dominican Republic by the Chinese vice premier and a 35-person delegation to take forward the considerable investment and trade plans Beijing is hoping to agree with the government of President Medina. It followed from Santo Domingo’s decision to recognise Beijing in 2018 and will likely bring Chinese investment in a wide range of infrastructural and other projects, including ports, telecommunications and the importation of Dominican produce and goods. The visit coincided with the publication of an article and subsequent robust Chinese statements indicating Beijing’s desire to build a regional relationship based on multilateralism and ‘mutual benefit and cooperation.’

The third event of strategic importance was a low-key meeting between CARICOM and the self-declared president of Venezuela, Juan Guaidó. The dialogue, which took place via a video link from Barbados was intended to carry forward through calibrated steps the Montevideo Mechanism agreed by Mexico, Uruguay and CARICOM which is supported by Russia, Cuba and others to try to find a peaceful way out of the increasingly confrontational internal situation in Venezuela.

So finally, the fourth and least noticed development is the growing transatlantic rift between Europe and Washington concerning the US administration’s attempts to isolate Cuba as a part of what it describes as a ‘Troika of Tyranny’ with Venezuela and Nicaragua.

In a very visible public signal, Prince Charles and his wife visited Cuba for three days. Although the British crown is apolitical, the visit was encouraged by the British government as a demonstration of the UK’s desire along with its EU27 colleagues that engagement and dialogue are required, despite fundamental differences over human rights and other issues.

It followed recent demarches and other high-level interventions in Washington by the UK and other EU nations. These established their opposition to the possible lifting of the waiver on Title III of the 1996 Helms-Burton legislation, and concern about the potential use of Title IV, which would prohibit EU and other third country executives alleged to be involved in ‘trafficking’ in expropriated assets, from entering the US.

Despite having strategic concerns in common with the US, the British Government – Washington’s closest ally in Europe – recently decided that US measures on Cuba were counterproductive, divisive, undermined legitimate trade and international attempts to bring Cuba into the international fold, and were an obstacle to free and frank discussion on reform in Cuba. More significantly, and of strategic importance to the UK and the EU 27, is the firmly held view that Washington’s Cuba policy is creating significant new openings for non-EU players in the wider region, a reference understood to refer to Russia and China.

What all of this suggests, plus the ongoing crisis in Venezuela and the possibility of a growing of Russian military presence there is that future pan-Caribbean coherence and stability is much less certain.

These geo-strategic and geo-economic developments happen at a time when the Caribbean’s single market and economy offer no defence, and there is no unified foreign policy.

They raise multiple questions about regional unity, whether CARICOM and its neighbours in the wider region will be able to balance competing international interests, and about the longer-term implications should Russia gamble on establishing a significant presence in South America.

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Comments

  • Linda  On April 13, 2019 at 10:06 am

    It was only a matter of time before the region became embroiled in the drama between China, Russia and the U.S. The moves being made by these various big guns have been happening slowly and anyone with a keen eye would have noticed. It will be up to our leaders in the region to do what’s best for their countries and not sell out to the highest bidder. My money is on China for the most part. We know more about China and how they operate than secretive Russia. We also know how the U.S. operate….take, take, take but give very little back. Our region is rich with so many resources. We have to make sure that we are the ones steering and controlling our destiny.

  • wally n  On April 13, 2019 at 11:04 am

    “Our region is rich with so many resources” wished you elaborated, placing Guyana in the Caribbean mix?. My money is on China? Lawd help you and your regions.
    My wish is that Guyana cuts away from the petty Napoleons, with their piece of mud, white sand and sunlight. Until the Small Islands start working as a group[never gonna happen] they have no impact and will forever be blowing in the wind, catering to any power offering a carrot, by the way, the Chinese carrot comes with a humongous stick.
    Maybe you should stick to the country with at least a semblance of democracy, before you lose your “many resources”
    I hope that Guyana does not drown in the problems of the seemingly bleak future of the Caribbean. We have a chance to fulfill our destiny as a completely independent, self sufficient, country, we don’t need to carry extra baggage, well at least, not yet.

    • Linda  On April 14, 2019 at 8:20 am

      Wally…you seem to focus on Guyana. I was speaking of the region and yes, each country has something to offer. We all know that it’s always been difficult for the Caribbean islands to think with one mind, you’re not saying anything new. If they can’t come together as one, then it’s up to the leaders of the individual countries to do right by their charge. Every super power comes with a big stick, nothing new you’re saying. What country are you referring to that has some semblance of democracy…if that still exists today. Guyana, which I don’t consider part of the Caribbean but you seem to think it is, will get the hardest lash by the “big guns” since they have the most to offer them. We all know how corrupt and easily the politicians can be bought. Every island has a chance to fulfill it’s own destiny, along with Guyana. The hard part for the leaders will be putting country first rather than their personal greed.

  • wally n  On April 14, 2019 at 11:17 am

    Linda I want to wish you and your small Islands best of luck finding and fulfilling your destinies. I think that many Guyanese don’t think themselves part of the Caribbean, that anchor was placed around our necks by “others” and unfortunately the strain is getting stronger, now that we are about to soar.
    Since we already went to hell and back, we are prepared for our new and exciting future.

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