Trump-Clinton begins as the most lopsided race in the modern era – commentary

Trump-Clinton begins as the most lopsided race in the modern era

trumpAs long expected, Trump has effectively secured the Republican nomination tonight – can he beat Hillary?

By Harry Lambert – Independent UK  – May 03, 2016

Donald Trump is the runaway winner in tonight’s Indiana primary, as expected. Polls, and the demographics of the state, had suggested as much. As usual during this election, they’ve been proven right.

Trump is now as likely to be the Republican nominee as Hillary Clinton is to be the Democratic nominee, with both a 98 per cent favourite in the betting markets after tonight.

Less than three weeks ago Trump’s odds had fallen to 55 per cent. But should you fear – will he actually be President?

Well, now that he’s wrapped up the nomination, his chances of being America’s next President have shot up, from 17 per cent to 29 per cent. 

But that still makes Hillary Clinton a 69 per cent favourite. (Sanders or ‘some other Republican’ both have a 1 per cent chance.)

That means Clinton begins this six-month race more favoured than any other candidate in modern history:
more than Obama ever was against John McCain in 2008; or Mitt Romney in 2012; or Bush was against Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.

Clinton leads Trump by 7-8 points in the 40 or so hypothetical general election polls published in the past six weeks. If she won by such a margin her victory would be at least as convincing as Obama’s in 2008.

Yet a Trump presidency is still a real possibility. A 3-in-10 chance is 1,450 times more likely than Leicester were to win the league this year.

And those percentages will change rapidly if the national polls start to change, or Trump proves formidable in swing states like Florida – where he performed very strongly in the Republican primary – and across the ‘Rust Belt’, in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, where ‘white and working-class’ voters may swing behind him.

We don’t know yet. The next six months are set for one of the most contentious and aggressive political campaigns in history, between two figures who have each been in the media limelight for more than 40 years.

The primaries will drag on for another month (see here for an explanation of why Trump has won, even though he’s still short of the 1237 delegates he needs), with California and a few other states effectively wrapping up each race on June 7.

Then the race will turn quiet – in so far as a Trump V Clinton race ever could – until the conventions in late July, which now look increasingly unlikely to be contested.

Attention will be focused on who each candidate chooses to be their running mate, with Trump purportedly short of options. Both will also try and unite their party, and ensure Cruz or Sanders supporters back them in the general election.

August could see riots across the USA as Trump holds rallies that will surely be even larger and more fractious than those so far.

And in September and October the race reaches its final stretch, with three presidential debates over a fortnight (beginning on September 26).

America will finally vote on November 8.

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  • Clyde Duncan  On 06/01/2016 at 5:28 pm

    “… Saying nice things about Hillary is a subversive act.” Sady Doyle – Author

    – by Daisiesarepretty – Daily Kos

    In an excellent article, by Sady Doyle, author of the soon-to-be-published book, “Train-wreck: The Women We Love to Hate, Mock and Fear… and Why”, said:

    I’ve come to believe that, in some ways, saying nice things about Hillary Clinton is a subversive act.

    Ain’t that the truth.

    Hillary Clinton has been maligned with lies, and demonized by misogynistic rhetoric, for more than two decades. Over the years, the repeating of the worst hate-Hillary memes has legitimized this crap in the minds of many.

    When she ran in the 2008 primary for the highest office in the land, it reached a fevered pitch, especially with the “bitch” meme.

    In 2016, the Hillary Clinton Nutcracker has made a comeback along with the Hillary punching bag and anti-Hillary Tee-Shirts …

    When the media takes a moment away from its fascination with Complainer-in-Chief, Donald Trump, we continue to hear talking heads discuss her shrill angry voice or her unlikable factor or how she’s “struggling” in a primary contest she’s already won.

    Saying nice things about Hillary Clinton is sure to draw fire — even from some liberals. As a result, many Hillary supporters have admitted they remain quiet to avoid the backlash.

    A Conundrum

    In late December, 2015, the Gallup Poll announced Hillary Clinton was chosen by survey respondents as “The Most Admired Woman,” for a record-breaking 20 years in a row.

    How can this be? How can the most maligned woman in public life also be the most admired?

    This nation’s love/hate relationship with Hillary Clinton is a conundrum, indeed.

    Many of her critics, including some on the left, say she’s not a real feminist. She’s just power hungry.

    I have to ask: Why would a woman running for president be any more power hungry than a man who does the same thing?

    Could it be because power is only a birthright for men? – Shirley Chisholm said that she faced more discrimination as a woman, than as a black person – Men are Men!

    Perhaps, the thought of a woman holding the power of POTUS seems unnatural?

    My Subversive Act: Why I love Hillary Clinton.

    I can point to the exact moment I instantly loved Hillary. In 1992, when the GOP attacked her for having a career, she responded:
    “I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas…”

    There she stood, an unapologetic feminist, who went on to become First Lady, then Senator, then Secretary of State, and now a viable woman candidate running for president of the USA.

    She humbles me because I know for a fact I could not have handled the hate thrown at her if I were in her shoes. I would’ve given up – Years ago.

    She inspires me because, no matter how many times she’s knocked down, she gets back up and continues to work toward her goal of breaking the biggest, thickest glass ceiling in the word: The USA Presidency.

    I am fired up and determined to do everything I can to ensure she becomes Madame President. And I have no doubt, once she’s in the Oval Office, she will work to deliver on her promises. Even better — she has the innovative plans to get it all done.

    In closing, I invite fellow Hillary supporters to be subversive and share why you love her, too.

  • Clyde Duncan  On 06/02/2016 at 2:43 pm

    ANALYSYS: Trump and Netanyahu, Purveyors of Hate

    Both stoke fear of external threats and nurture resentment of internal others to gain power and deflect criticism.

    Chemi Shalev – Haaretz

    Donald Trump has had a terrible week. He convened a press conference to refute suspicions that he had failed to disburse donations received in his March fundraiser for veterans but then appeared to blow his top at the journalists present.

    In the case of Trump University, the order was reversed: first he lashed out at the judge presiding over the suit filed against the university that bears his name, then he had to withstand the damning testimonies contained in the court documents the same judge had unveiled.

    Benjamin Netanyahu has also seen better days. Last week the State Comptroller accused him of serial corruption and asked for a criminal investigation of his travels abroad. Then Naftali Bennett tried to blackmail him in exchange for the appointment of Avigdor Lieberman as Defense Minister, which didn’t reflect well on Netanyahu in and of itself. Then police recommended that his wife Sarah be indicted for pilfering state funds and then she was lambasted in a separate civilian suit as well. Then, to cap it all off, it emerged that the rape case on which Netanyahu had based a Facebook post that incited against the media and the left had been trumped up, excuse the expression, by the purported victim.

    Judging by previous experience, however, both Trump and Netanyahu are probably none the worse for wear: What critics view as marks of shame is often seen by fans as badges of honour.

    Trump became the presumptive Republican candidate despite, and possibly because, of his checkered reputation, his never-ending mistakes, faux pas and exhibitions of pure ignorance, his coarse attitudes and his harsh insults to almost anyone under the sun. Netanyahu has been elected and re-elected prime minister over and over again despite his long list of potentially career-ending brushes with the law, his lack of any momentous achievements, his political isolation, a dearth of political allies and the fact that after all these years, nobody seems to really like him or trust him.

    Both cases are markedly different – Netanyahu is a veteran survivor while Trump is still a novice; Netanyahu is a deep thinker while Trump shoots from the hip – yet both share a not-so-secret formula that has brought them this far: HATRED.

    A powerful mix of hatred and resentment. Trump and Netanyahu are primo purveyors of the stuff. Both have been pushing it and peddling it and using it to maximum effect. At this stage, both could probably walk down Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, as Trump has said of himself, and keep their jobs nonetheless. Just think of the alternative, their rationalizers will say.

    Their lists of most favoured enemies aren’t all that different either. Both share a love-hate relationship with the press, both owe their careers to its slavish devotion and both abuse it publicly and regularly. Both rail on a regular basis against judges, academics and intellectuals who fail to acknowledge their greatness. Both have magnified the threats of illegal immigration. Both routinely conflate Islamic terror and radical Islam with your next-door Muslim neighbours. Both incite against racial or ethnic groups that don’t belong to their core constituency. Both champion two sides of the same coin: the world is against us, and it’s me against the world.

    Trump’s got the Mexicans? Netanyahu has Israeli Arabs. Trump has China? Netanyahu’s got Iran. Trump hates Europe? So does Netanyahu. Trump thinks the world is trying to take advantage of the U.S.? Netanyahu claims the world wants to destroy Israel. Trump says Barack Obama is pathetic? Netanyahu couldn’t agree more. And so on.

    Both candidates foment hatred in order to unite their fans against a common enemy and to deflect attention away from their own shortcomings in the process. Trump may be bad, but Hillary Clinton is much worse, as a recent AP headline suggested. Netanyahu isn’t perfect, everyone but his most committed sycophants would agree, but he is the only one who can stop the dreaded leftie meanies from selling Israel down the river.

    Both Trump and Netanyahu feed off popular resentment of elites. Netanyahu is the original creator of what has been termed “coalition of the downtrodden”: new Russian immigrants, veteran North Africans, Jewish settlers in the territories and the ultra-Orthodox. Even though his party has been in power for most of the past 40 years, Netanyahu and his predecessors have succeeded in preserving the bitterness and animosity toward Israel’s old guard that brought the Likud to power in the first place. Liberals, intellectuals, Arab lovers, academics, the media, all those snooty snobs who shunned others aside when they were riding high and continue to look down on them to this day. Those who have forgotten what it’s like to be Jews, as Netanyahu once said, those who are now selling their souls to alien and hostile Europeans, as the new anti-NGO law that passed preliminary approval in the Knesset on Wednesday implies.

    Likewise, Trump began his ascent to the GOP throne by giving voice to overlooked uneducated whites with bellyfuls of bitterness and a similar sense of being shunted aside. Like Netanyahu, Trump stokes their suspicions of external enemies that are conspiring against America and inflames their fears of an internal cabal of white liberals and non-white minorities who have taken over their country and are now gunning for their values. Just as Netanyahu didn’t invent the exploitation of resentment against Israel’s Ashkenazi elites but only perfected the time-tested ‘us versus them’ mindset that helped bring the Likud to power, so Trump only improves on the unbridled and sometimes irrational animosity that the GOP has been building up, especially since Barack Obama came to power in 2008. Trump simply took this legacy to its logical extreme, hoisting the GOP establishment on its own petard.

    Netanyahu is subtler than Trump: he still prefers to maintain an aura of statesman-like respectability. He has mastered the art of dispensing with political rivals by slow and clever subterfuge rather than the instantaneous verbal annihilation perfected by Trump over the past few months. But both are masters of playing external threats to the hilt, inventing new enemies in times of shortage and offering disgruntled voters handy scapegoats to blame for the bad cards that life may have dealt them.

    Netanyahu, of course, can look back with satisfaction to two decades of successful hate mongering, marked as bookends by the two slogans that earned him his greatest electoral triumphs: “Netanyahu is good for the Jews,” that pushed him to victory in 1996, and “the Arabs are coming to vote in hordes”, that got the job done in 2015. By now, Netanyahu is enjoying the fruits of his labour: the demoralization of Israeli elites, the decimation of the country’s media, the decline of its democratic institutions, the resignation of Israelis to his seemingly endless tenure.

    Trump still has a long way to go. Unlike Netanyahu, his ability to portray America as a country beset by powerful enemies and teetering on the point of extinction is restrained by geography, history and U.S. military might. The resiliency of American liberals and moderates may turn out to be made of sterner stuff than that of Israel’s vanquished “elites”. Nonetheless, THE POTENCY OF THE POWERFUL DRUG THAT TRUMP IS PUSHING SHOULD NOT BE UNDER-ESTIMATED. It ran through the veins of the most dangerous regimes of the past hundred years.

    “HATE destroys a man’s sense of values and his objectivity. It causes him to describe the beautiful as ugly and the ugly as beautiful; and to confuse the true with the false and the false with the true,” Martin Luther King said. If Donald Trump succeeds in reaching that point, his spirit will dominate America, as Netanyahu’s rules Israel.

  • Gigi  On 06/02/2016 at 6:34 pm

    @ Clyde, what has this got to do with my response to you? You do know that these folks are paid to write nice things about Hillary, right? Their livelihoods depend on it.
    And why has Guyanese online disappeared all the other comments.
    AGAIN, Thank you for proving my point. I see that you still don’t get it. You know what I actually like about Hillary. Her welfare and prison reform policies, calling these folks “super predators” for wanting to live the easy life off of decent, hardworking people.
    ANALYSYS: HILLARY, Trump and Netanyahu, Purveyors of Hate…there, fix it for ya!
    Now, Trump is no fawning worshiper of Israel but Hillary is. So because Trump is not, that makes him a purveyor of hate says the Jewish writer whose article is taken from a Jewish newspaper. Think man! Think!
    And Hillary hates black people more than she hates some white and brown people. Read up on the genocide and murderous rampages that her husband, her and your god Obama have wrecked on the continent of Africa and the Negro people. With brotherly love like yours and Obama, your own kit and kin don’t need you.

    • guyaneseonline  On 06/03/2016 at 12:06 am

      Gigi: you wrote;;

      “And why has Guyanese online disappeared all the other comments”.

      What do you mean by this statement? I .. as the moderator of this blog , have given you free reign to spout your ideas … some quite good… others quite preposterous…..
      I do not “disappear” comments, even if I do not agree with them. that is not my role.
      I let every comment pass the filter but some are delayed by the WordPress filter if certain words are used … it seems… then I have to manually release them. I see all rejected comments so no comments have “disappeared”.
      On a couple of occasions I have asked everyone to behave in a civil manner to each other and I am pleased to say this has been done. thanks!

      I am therefore concerned by the above statement and would like you to prove its correctness.

      Looking forward to your reply Gigi.
      Cyril Bryan. Moderator.

  • Clyde Duncan  On 06/02/2016 at 8:26 pm

    So, Gigi – You are the spokesperson and defender of “… the continent of Africa and the Negro people. ….”

    And Hillary Clinton, and President Obama and me – are NOT…. R-E-A-L-L-Y??

    As they say, “Take a photo of this one – It will last longer!!”

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