Four Reasons Why Romney Might Still Win

Four Reasons Why Romney Might Still Win

By Robert Reich – NationOfChange OP editor

“With gas prices rising, corporate profits shrinking, most of Europe in recession, Japan still a basket case, and the Chinese economy slowing, the upcoming job reports are unlikely to be stellar.”

Can Romney possibly recover? A survey conducted between Sept. 12 and Sept. 16 by the Pew Research Center — before the “47 percent victim” video came to light – showed Obama ahead of Romney 51% to 43% among likely voters.

That’s the biggest margin in the September survey prior to a presidential election since Bill Clinton led Bob Dole, 50% to 38% in 1996.

And, remember, this recent poll was done before America watched Romney belittle almost half the nation.            

For the last several days I’ve been deluged with calls from my inside-the-beltway friends telling me “Romney’s dead.”

Hold it. Rumors of Romney’s demise are premature for at least four reasons:

1.  Between now and Election Day come two jobs reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – October 5 and November 2. If they’re as bad as the last report, showing only 96,000 jobs added in August (125,000 are needed just to keep up with population growth) and the lowest percentage of employed adults since 1981, Romney’s claim the economy is off track becomes more credible, and Obama’s that it’s on the mend harder to defend.

With gas prices rising, corporate profits shrinking, most of Europe in recession, Japan still a basket case, and the Chinese economy slowing, the upcoming job reports are unlikely to be stellar.

2. Also between now and Election Day are three presidential debates, starting October 3. It’s commonly thought Obama will win them handily but that expectation may be very wrong – and could work against him. Yes, Romney is an automaton — but when the dials are set properly he can give a good imitation of a human engaged in sharp debate. He did well in the Republican primary debates.

Obama, by contrast, can come off slow and ponderous. Recall how he stuttered and stumbled during the 2008 Democratic primary debates. And he hasn’t been in a real-live debate for four years; Romney recently emerged from almost a year of them.

3. During the next 7 final weeks of the campaign, the anti-Obama forces will be spending a gigantic amount of money. Not just the Romney campaign and Romney’s super PACs, but other super PACS aligned with Romney, billionaires spending their own fortunes, and non-profit “social welfare” organizations like the Chamber of Commerce, Karl Rove’s “Crossroads,” and various Koch-brothers political fronts – all will dump hundreds of millions on TV and radio spots, much of it spreading lies and distortions. Some of this money will be devoted to get-out-the-vote drives — to phone banks and door-to-door canvassing to identify favorable voters, and vans to bring them to the polling stations.

It’s an easy bet they’ll far outspend Obama and his allies. I’ve heard two-to-one. The race is still close enough that a comparative handful of voters in swing states can make the difference – which means gobs of money used to motivate voters to polling stations can be critical.

4. As they’ve displayed before, the Republican Party will do whatever it can to win — even if it means disenfranchising certain voters. To date, 11 states have enacted voter identification laws, all designed by Republican legislatures and governors to dampen Democratic turnout.

The GOP is also encouraging what can only be termed “voter vigilante” groups to “monitor polling stations to prevent fraud” – which means intimidating minorities who have every right to vote. We can’t know at this point how successful these efforts may be but it’s a dangerous wildcard. And what about those Diebold voting machines?

So don’t for a moment believe “Romney’s dead,” and don’t be complacent. The hard work lies ahead, in the next seven weeks.

And even if Obama is reelected, more hard work begins after Inauguration Day – when we must push him to be tougher on the Republicans than he was in his first term, and do what the nation needs.

This article was published at NationofChange at: All rights are reserved.

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  • wycs  On 09/21/2012 at 9:01 pm

    Romney doesn’t seem to have a chance of being President at the next election in November. He and his running mate Ryan don’t mesh and the American people should keep far away from these two puppets. Although there is about 6 to7 weeks left for the Elections, I still believe the American people are far too smart to give away their votes to the GOP. Even at this stage I believe Obama will retain the Presidency of the USA. Does anyone really see these two running this country? Over to you people with your comments.

  • Rosaliene Bacchus  On 09/21/2012 at 9:43 pm

    Thanks for sharing this link.

  • Cyril Balkaran  On 09/22/2012 at 6:51 am

    The November Presidential Election Race is not yet over. The Obama campain administrators are scoring political points on these fronts and the latest promise the president made is on their way home. The Afghanistan Troops pull out. The Military Machine is marching home instead of Body bags! The Illegal Immigration issues are being settled in favour of the illegals being made residents of the USA. The great Health Care Debate is over and all this is done by the promises that president Obama made to the American People five years ago. The Republicans do not have a chance in November 2012. Hail President Obama. Long live the great Nation that is the USA.

  • Frank  On 09/24/2012 at 5:29 pm

    What is the author trying to do? He has voiced his perceived negatives without addressing the positives. Why would rational people vote for two Plutocrats ? Why would senior citizens vote for those who would like to put Medicare and Social Security in peril?

  • Clyde Duncan  On 09/25/2012 at 6:00 pm

    Robert Reich effectively expressed my sentiments about the election scene in the USA completely. He is absolutely right-on about Gov. Romney’s chances of winning. African-Americans and Latino-Americans tend to become lazy and complacent when it is time to stand in line to vote – although there are some States that you may cast your vote as of today, and not wait until November, they will sit on their collective hands and await some pastor’s urging to get out and vote after church on Sunday. Their attitude mirrors some of the comments I have read “President Obama will be re-elected without a doubt, I don’t need to vote – he could do it without me!”

    The majority of white Americans voted AGAINST President Obama last time; their elected officials made it a mantra to obstruct the Obama administration and make him a one-term President and they have ran a very successful game until the end, including taking the USA to the brink of sovereign default, which scared the whole world because of the reckless conduct of the Republican and Tea Party leadership.

    The President cannot come forward and tell all the details of how he was treated and obstructed in office, because they have a pat answer, locked, loaded and ready – he was blaming the Bush administration – Now he is blaming others. So President Obama takes it like a man and accepts responsibility for the differential treatment he received during his term in office. Vice President Biden used to be able to cross the floor and beg a favour of his Republican colleagues – NOT this time – You’re on your own, Buddy! he was told. Anyone who believes that Romney-Ryan cannot win in November is uninformed, intentionally misinformed, or naive, in my opinion. Michael Moore said it, “…. better get used to saying President Romney!”

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